7-1-2016

Well looking back at that last chart... I got that one wrong. I have a regular job, so I can't always blog. Not that anyone is actually reading this, but if someone stumbles upon it, that's why the post aren't always frequent.

THE GAME

I thought we were going to push past 213. Looking back at the chart the only thing I see that suggest it may drop is the MACD histogram is not growing, the last candle is red, the price got close to the R1 price line, and the volume was slightly dropping. None of these were really yelling SELL.

Moving on... In the morning I see a pull back between 207.66 and 208.42 early. Then it will slowly trend up to 210.78 to 211.45.

06/10/2016

I an new at this blog stuff and I have more going on than trading. I will get better as I get my time more organized. I look at stocktwits from time to time. It is entertaining. There are a few folks on there that I really do respect their opinion. Most are just trying to find their way through it all and not look like an ignorant ass while they are figuring it out.

A word of caution. Be careful listening to experts, guru's, analyst, media icons, the media, your barber... and especially bloggers. Learn technical analysis and form your own conclusion. The media, analyst, and guru's are not reliable. I think they tend to guide the sheeple into a direction they want them. To succeed you have to be able to see it for yourself. What were the experts saying during the credit crisis? Trust none of them.

Onward... well here we go:




Wednesday I sold my position before the close. I was up over 20% on my position within a few days and it felt as though it would pullback. I reentered the same position on Thursday at a lower price. At the close today the new position was up 4%. Holding overnight is a risk. Right now I feel it is safe to do so, but do not plan to hold over the weekend. What I expect tomorrow is a push past 212.76 and more than likely past 213. It should have pulled back today, but it went back up to R2 on the hourly. It looks very bullish right now.





I am holding a position in BAC right now. I am down about 20% on it. Should have already sold this position. The chart is bearish. It's too low to short as well. I am going to hold for now. I think the financials will pull back up soon. The weekly chart suggest it will be up next week. The daily, not so much. In my opinion, going long here is money in the bank. However, it could go down some more. Better to buy when you see the bottom. Which could be as low as 13.75. I would wait for a good entry on this one before I went long.

Good luck for now. In the future I will post more charts.

06/08/16 - Trading plan

Right now I am mainly trading SPY. I also hold a position in BAC. The overall US market is currently moving to higher prices. Is it a bull market? I am not ready to raise the bull flag just yet. I am a technical trader. I also try to look at the overall game. Why is the market doing what it is doing? There is always a story behind it.

If you want to trade any stock, you have to know the direction of the overall market. Trade your stock in the direction of the overall market. Yes, there are cases where you can do the opposite of what I am saying. I am into HPT (high probability trades). In my overall strategy trading against the market is not part of the plan. The exceptions to this rule are when the market is on the edge of a trading channel. When it penetrates the channel I will either buy or sell into the opposing direction expecting it move back into the channel.


 

SPY: I am looking for it to break 212.76 today. If we can close above that level, then the next target is 215.68. On a pull back 209 is a solid floor. 210.26 is as well, but not as solid as 209.



BAC - right now this looks bearish. The fear of them losing money on oil company loans is behind us now (IMHO). The main reason it pulled back is because of the likely delay in the feds raising rates. This gives another good buying opportunity once it settle down.

Good luck.

5-18-16

One thing you have to keep in mind with my analysis is it is primarily technical. While some fundamental factors may effect me, they can also be manifested and not relied upon. Money flow is real... you can trust that. Be ever vigilant in watching the money flow.

Onward to the charts.

 

 

 

Long term trend is up. Are we due for a correction at this time? If the magic number "7" means yes... then I suppose we are. Personally not sure the global economy can handle it right now. I suppose we could handle anything, but what I mean is I don't think "they" want to deal with it. Honestly, I do not have tin foil on my head... really. (well not most of the time)

 



 

 

Trade's

My system is ever evolving and tweaked. While I have been in the game for a while I am far far from being what anyone would consider an expert of any kind of authority on trading. The game is so complex I know I can't know it all. I think we are trading against people that are being led around by algos. Sounds like I am a conspiracy nut, but it's not so far fetched. I have seen enough evidence to support it. Don't buy into the illusion they have created. Trade against it.

From this point forward I will publish charts. Happy trading!

Me and my trading strats

I am a 48 year old part time options trader. I started trading in the late 90's day trading equities and almost blew up my account. Traded off and on since then, with much more frequency in the last 3 years. I form my own fundamental opinion of a stock and then use technical analysis to target my buy/sell prices. I prefer options with plenty of liquidity and reasonable spreads. The stock market is a game designed to take money from the public. Never lose sight of that. Options trading is a form of gambling, but we call it investing so it sounds more sophisticated. I use options because of the leverage it gives me. I have made good money with options and I have lost good money with options. Capital preservation is the key to trading long term. The timing of your entry and exit is very crucial.

Ways to destroy your trading account:

1. NOT having a trading plan with capital preservation built into every trade.
2. NOT having a trading plan.
3. Position size too large for the account size.
4. NOT choosing your buys/sells using sound technical analysis.
5. Following some idiot on stocktwits or similar web site thinking you can trade whatever drivel they say and make money.
6. Overtrading - You don't have to trade everyday or every week. Let the trades come to you, don't chase stocks.
7. NEVER Trade on the fly or using gut feelings. Each trade needs to follow your trading rules. Gut feelings are emotions, which are not good for trading.
8. NOT having an exit strategy OR allowing the price to go against you well past your stop loss thinking that the stock will pull back and THEN you will get out. Bad idea. Your first loss is your BEST loss. Get out and look at it again from the sidelines. It's OK to be wrong.

If you protect your capital and have a sound trading plan, your account will grow. The 8 deadly sins above mean a lot more than they seem. I know people that buy 200 or more contracts on weeklies for small scalps. The scalps may add up to serious cash, but those potential for loss is MUCH greater if it goes against you.